Are AI Overviews Going to Impact Your Commercial Traffic?

As a marketing leader, you’ve likely observed the rapid evolution of search over the past year. Google’s AI Overviews are now dominating search results pages, whilst platforms like ChatGPT and Perplexity continue gaining traction. This seismic shift raises an urgent question: is your commercial traffic at risk?

Recent data from Alphabet’s earnings call reveals that ChatGPT search has exploded to 41 million monthly active users — nearly quadrupling from just 11 million six months prior. Meanwhile, Google is reporting that AI mode queries are typically twice as long as traditional search queries, indicating a fundamental shift in how people seek information.

But before you sound the alarm, there’s a critical distinction to understand. While informational queries are indeed migrating to AI-powered interfaces, Google reports something fascinating: commercial queries — the searches that drive your revenue — remain largely unaffected.

Let’s explore what this means for your marketing strategy and how you can adapt to thrive in this new search landscape.

Executive Summary

• The threat is real but specific: AI Overviews primarily impact informational queries (appearing in approximately 96% of informational searches), while commercial intent queries remain relatively stable on traditional search platforms
• Traffic patterns are changing: Expect decreased traffic from top-of-funnel content as AI platforms increasingly satisfy informational needs without requiring clicks to your website
• Brand presence still matters: Being cited in AI Overviews creates brand recognition that can influence later purchase decisions, even without direct clicks
• Reporting adjustments needed: Marketing leaders should shift focus from pure traffic metrics to conversion-focused KPIs when reporting to stakeholders
• Quality requirements intensifying: Recent updates to Google’s Quality Rater Guidelines explicitly target AI-generated content without original insights or expert curation

The Growth of AI Search: Numbers You Can’t Ignore

When we examine recent usage statistics, the trajectory becomes clear. ChatGPT is currently generating approximately 5.5 billion visits per month, with consistent month-over-month growth. While this pales compared to Google’s 142 billion monthly visits, Google’s traffic has essentially plateaued while AI search platforms continue their upward climb.

More tellingly, Google reports that Gemini (their core AI assistant) has reached 35 million daily active users. These aren’t just casual users — they’re actively engaging with an entirely new search paradigm.

But what’s particularly noteworthy is how executives at Google are responding. During a recent Department of Justice hearing, Google’s VP of Gemini and Speech stated that they’re “not really concerned” about the traffic lost to ChatGPT and Perplexity because those terms are primarily “homework and math queries” — searches with limited commercial value.

As the VP pointedly noted, they’re “not really seeing any cannibalisation of commercial queries.” In other words, when users are ready to make a purchase decision, they’re still turning to Google.

“Gemini are seeing three 35 million daily active users. There are people that are engaging directly with the app, whether that’s on their phone, whether that’s on through the web platform.”

Dale Davies
Head of Marketing

How AI Overviews Are Reshaping Search Results Pages

AI Overviews appear at the top of search results pages for an overwhelming majority of informational queries, fundamentally altering the search landscape. These AI-generated summaries directly answer informational questions without requiring users to click through to any website.

The impact on traffic distribution is significant:

• The visible real estate has shifted dramatically. When combined with People Also Ask sections, AI Overviews often consume the entire above-the-fold area, pushing traditional organic links far down the page
• Click-through rates for informational content have declined. With comprehensive answers provided directly in search results, fewer users need to visit your informational pages
• Citation links provide limited traffic. While your brand may be mentioned within an AI Overview, the associated link often generates fewer clicks than a traditional search result

However, there’s nuance to this picture. AI Overviews frequently include a carousel with two or three featured sources, often with images. While these may not drive the same volume of clicks as traditional top rankings, they create valuable brand recognition that can influence later purchase decisions.

Commercial Traffic: Still Your Domain

Despite the rapid adoption of AI search interfaces, there’s compelling evidence that commercial traffic remains largely insulated from these changes. During Alphabet’s recent earnings call, executives reported that:

• The volume of commercial queries has actually increased with the launch of AI Overviews
• Monetisation rates remain approximately the same for these commercial queries

This aligns with broader user behavior patterns. While people increasingly turn to AI assistants for informational queries, research, and exploratory conversations, they typically shift to traditional search platforms when they’re ready to make a purchase.

As one CEO put it during our expert interviews: “When users reach the point of commercial intent — when they’re ready to compare specific products or make a purchase — they still overwhelmingly prefer the familiar interface of traditional search.”

Adapting Your Marketing Strategy: From Traffic to Conversions

For marketing leaders, this evolution demands a strategic pivot. Rather than focusing solely on traffic volume, the emphasis should shift to traffic quality and conversion optimisation.

Evaluate Your Content Portfolio

Review your existing content strategy with these questions in mind:

• What percentage of your traffic comes from purely informational content? Identify vulnerable areas where AI Overviews might impact visitor numbers
• Which content pieces drive actual conversions? Focus resources on protecting and enhancing these assets
• Are you creating content that demonstrates genuine expertise? Google’s Quality Rater Guidelines now explicitly target AI-generated content without original insights

Reframe Internal Reporting

When communicating with stakeholders about SEO performance:

• Tie traffic metrics to revenue outcomes. Be transparent about potential traffic decreases for top-of-funnel content, while emphasising stability in revenue-generating traffic
• Highlight presence in AI Overviews. Being featured in these sections contributes to brand awareness even without direct clicks
• Shift focus to conversion-related KPIs. Emphasise metrics that directly relate to business objectives rather than pure traffic numbers

Embrace the Hybrid Future

The most successful organisations will adopt a hybrid approach that:

• Optimises for both traditional search and AI Overviews. Create content that satisfies both algorithms and human readers
• Balances automated efficiency with human expertise. Use AI tools to support content creation, but ensure strong editorial oversight
• Leverages first-hand experience markers. Incorporate language like “we tested” or “in our experience” that signals genuine expertise

The New Quality Imperative: Understanding Google’s Updated Guidelines

Recent updates to Google’s Quality Rater Guidelines provide crucial insight into how search engines are adapting to the proliferation of AI-generated content.

The guidelines now explicitly state that “the lowest rating would apply to main content on the page if it looks like copied, paraphrased, or embedded automatic AI-generated content” without substantial human editing or curation.

This creates a clear imperative for marketers:

• Quality over quantity. Publishing 20 AI-generated articles weekly without substantial human expertise and curation is likely to backfire
• Demonstrable expertise. Content must clearly showcase the Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness and Trustworthiness (E-E-A-T) that Google prioritises
• First-person experience. Look for opportunities to incorporate language that demonstrates actual hands-on experience with products or topics

As Google’s John Mueller noted during Search Central Live in Madrid, the focus is on eliminating “thin, useless, sort of baseless content” that lacks originality or meaningful human input.

Next Steps

As AI continues reshaping the search landscape, marketing leaders should:

1. Conduct an AI vulnerability audit of your content portfolio to identify areas most susceptible to traffic loss from AI Overviews
2. Revise reporting frameworks to emphasise conversion metrics over raw traffic numbers
3. Develop clear guidelines for using AI in content creation, ensuring substantial human expertise and editing
4. Monitor your presence in AI Overviews and other AI-generated content to track brand visibility
5. Test commercial content performance regularly to ensure it continues reaching conversion-ready audiences

Resources Mentioned

• Google’s Search Quality Rater Guidelines
• Alphabet’s Q1 2024 Earnings Call
• Google I/O 2025
• “How Brands Grow” by Byron Sharp

In Conclusion

The rise of AI Overviews represents not an extinction event for organic traffic but rather an evolution in how users discover and interact with your brand. Whilst informational traffic patterns are certainly changing, commercial intent queries remain remarkably stable.

The most successful marketing leaders will adapt quickly — shifting focus from raw traffic numbers to meaningful conversions, embracing the complementary roles of traditional and AI-powered search, and doubling down on demonstrating genuine expertise that neither AI nor competitors can easily replicate.

Remember the fundamental insight shared by Google’s executives: when users are ready to make purchase decisions, they’re still turning to traditional search. Your job is to ensure your brand is positioned prominently at that critical moment of commercial intent.

Watch This Next

Google’s John Mueller recently suggested that trying to “sprinkle some experiences on your web pages” isn’t something that SEOs should be focusing their time on. However, it appears that this statement is being slightly misinterpreted by the SEO community.

Mueller’s message wasn’t that E-E-A-T signals don’t matter — it was that you can’t fake them.

We dig into this ongoing community discussion in one of our recent episodes of The Dojo, our search marketing news podcast, which you can watch below or listening to via the show notes page: Did Google Just “Confirm” That You Can’t Add E-E-A-T To Your Website?